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Cami-kaze

The third eviction takes place tonight with Cami-Li, Katie Hopkins, Nadia Sawalha and Patsy Kensit facing the chop. Friday’s eviction was possibly one of the closest in Big Brother history, with just 1% separating Nadia, Perez and evictee Alicia at the bottom of the vote (Calum will have topped the vote by a long way), at least as the live show started. I don’t think it’s likely to be quite as close this time.

Katie H is favourite to win the show outright and the fourth favourite to be evicted. As a divisive figure, she may get some boos from the crowd, but she’s very safe in her first eviction test. There’s little more to say about her in this instance.

Nadia has undoubtedly gained some momentum over the last few days, and her outright price has crashed to single figures. As I mentioned in my last post, she is a very good fit for the voting demographic, being a Loose Woman. The fact that she’s relentlessly stood by her pal Perez has gone down well with the audience on social media. She’s coming across less as a meddling pest and more of the caring, motherly figure I’m sure she intended to be when she first went in. Nadia is just edging out Katie H in the Telly Mix poll, so like her, she’s entirely safe in this instance. The fact that Nadia has climbed so rapidly in just a few days suggests that there is likely be a strong Anti-Hopkins vote materialising. This will be discussed in further detail in a future post…

Poor Patsy. She hasn’t had an easy time in the house, to put it mildly. Clearly there solely for the cheque, she hasn’t got involved, and as a housemate has failed to deliver. She is trailing very far behind Katie H and Nadia in the eviction polls, and she is one of two possibilities who could be evicted tonight. She desperately wants to go home and this has been shown in the highlights show on a number of occasions. But I do think the public are more likely than not to save her, and it’s all to do with the fourth nominated housemate, Cami-Li.

Cami-Li is arguably one of the most pointless glamour models they have ever had on the show, and that’s saying something. She is hated by the public and has been now for several weeks, having offended with her filthy mouth and self-destructive drunken antics. Momentum on social media is very much to Get Cami-Li Out, which I imagine is what will be chanted by the crowd (they will surely be briefed to keep the Perez surprise under wraps). To do this enough people will have to save Patsy, whom herself has little reason to be saved otherwise, as she’s providing zero entertainment. Working greatly against Cami-Li is the fact that glamour models have proven to be very unvoteable in the past. Patsy is British, more famous and a better fit with the voting audience, being a 40-ish year old mum. I can’t for the life of me would think who would pick up their phone or app to save Cami-Li, apart from the odd stray vote from daft Get Katie H Out/Get Nadia Out campaigners. Having failed to start a showmance with Calum, she’s pretty disposable and it’s probably time for her to go now.

Therefore Cami-Li is my main eviction play tonight, and I’ve gone quite big on this one at odds of around 1.5. It’s extremely unlikely that there’ll be a vote freeze, with it being a one hour show and having to fit in highlights, eviction and Perez’s “shock” return to the house. They may well announce that Katie H and Nadia are the Top 2 in the vote, though. The next eviction(s) will be on Friday.

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Irritating Whinge Bag

I was struggling to come up with a name for this post, until I read that The S*n had reported Loose Women have apparently banned Celebrity Big Brother discussions on the show because Nadia has been nothing but an ‘Irritating Whinge Bag’. Brilliant!

Nadia, Calum, Perez and Alicia face the second single eviction.

Calum is the only male eye-candy in the house for all the horny housewives watching at home. He’s been relatively quiet, hasn’t done a lot, but then hasn’t done a lot wrong either. He is comfortably topping all of the eviction polls, and I don’t envisage a shock exit for him tonight. As the only housemate likely to be cheered by the eviction crowd, I’m tempted to lay him on Betfair at big odds. Given his opposition, I see no reason why he won’t top the vote.

Perez has been a major talking point on the show. His storyline taking on Katie Hopkins has been great to watch and seems to have plenty of legs left in it yet. This is going to be the reason why people will vote to save him, according to social media. He claims he is “most entertaining” but to me what he does is not particularly entertaining – just crazy and deluded. One thing is for sure, there’s absolutely no way producers would want to lose Perez this early. He’s marginally second in eviction polls but I would not be surprised if these polls are overestimating his support at this stage. I think producers would possibly go without a vote freeze tonight if Perez is not in the top two of the vote, just to be on the safe side. If he’s in the top two with Calum, then I would expect this to be announced as it would be somewhat controversial. What “I hate Katie Hopkins” Perez voters may not realise, however, is that they may actually be doing her a favour in the long-run, because if Perez stays, then this would keep her prominent in the edit and give her more airtime. When he is booed by the crowd, it’s possible that his eviction price may come in a little.

I am worried about Alicia’s chances of survival, because hardly anyone seems to be talking about her. However, Nadia and Perez both have their fare share of haters, definitely more so than Alicia. I’ve learned not to underestimate the audience in a vote-to-save situation. Therefore I would have to expect that many of these people will send votes Alicia’s way in order to get rid of someone they dislike more. But Alicia has not done herself any favours this week, trying to justify her insane addiction to plastic surgery. When she said she’d rather die than live without her boobs, that went down like a lead balloon both inside and outside of the house. She is third in eviction polls, but I do think it could be very close at the bottom of the vote between her and Nadia, and the market agrees. However, if there’s a vote freeze with Alicia and Nadia in the bottom two, then I would expect Alicia to win the H2H and escape as Nadia is clearly more hated by the public. No vote freeze could potentially leave Alicia more vulnerable. I’m hoping that enough people still feel sorry for her and perceive her as nice and genuine enough to be saved.

Oh Nadia. How the mighty have fallen etc. It’s hard to believe that she was one of the hot favourites to win on launch night. She has come across very badly on the show, trying to get involved with all the dramas and meddling in unwanted and unnecessary ways. If anything, she has changed perceptions of herself from positive to negative. She is comfortably bottom of the polls and favourite to be evicted tonight. However, as I’ve mentioned above, I don’t think it’s certain she’ll go. Loose Women have a great record on the show, including Denise Welch (1st), Coleen Nolan (2nd) and Carol McGiffin (my favourite! 4th) largely because they are typically a very good fit with the traditional Middle England mum voting audience. It is therefore not impossible that some of this audience will pick up the phone to save her – she isn’t totally without fans, after all. The problem is, I think the vast majority of Anti-Katie Hopkins votes will instead go to Perez. On Bit On The Side last night, both Nadia’s husband and fellow Loose Woman, Kaye What’s-her-name, both asked the public NOT to save her. She herself has mentioned on several occasions that she wants to go, and you can tell she genuinely does want to leave, unlike Perez. This doesn’t inspire people to pick up the phone and save her. I therefore think she is a deserving favourite, and is my main eviction play this week.

As is often the case, much of who will get evicted tonight may depend on who gets the crucial airtime before the phone lines close, who comes across well during it, and whether or not there is a vote freeze. I will be looking for clues in Emma Willis’ pre-show video message and the spoiler of the highlights show. To some extent, it wouldn’t surprise me to see anyone other than Calum evicted tonight. But no one likes a fence-sitter, so I’m going to predict that it will be Nadia.

How To Pick A Celebrity Big Brother Winner

Gary-Busey

Guess who’s back? Back again. I’m pleased to announce the return of my Big Brother blog, after a year-long absence. My last post, in January 2014, focussed on Jim Davidson and correctly predicted that he would be crowned the winner of that particular series. This post will be a more general guide on how to pick who’s likely to be a Celebrity Big Brother winner.

Changing the public’s perception

Many ‘celebrities’ that go on CBB have a very specific objective: they want or need to change how they are viewed in the minds of the British public. Somewhat inevitably, lots of celebrities have particular cock-ups in their careers which can be very damaging for their reputations. Going on a reality show therefore gives them an opportunity for redemption, to turn it back around in the eyes of the public and to show the “real” them. For some reason, this is a big motivator in a vote-to-win situation, and has aided several CBB victors, including; Bez, Alex Reid, Paddy Doherty, Rylan Clark and Jim Davidson. Other contestants, like Frankie Cocozza, have come close to winning whilst changing perceptions along the way. In short, it’s something that can shock people into voting.

The star of the show

Who do the public deem “most entertaining”, and therefore, “most deserving”? The winner of CBB is almost always someone who has entertained the public the most. Of course, a lot of this can be concerned with who is most favoured by the producers, and subsequently receives airtime in the form of secret tasks and narratives, which dominate house proceedings. In order to win the show a contestant has to get involved and actually do things. Being perceived as “nice” can get someone to the final by default, but it’s never been enough to win by itself. If you look back at the previous winners, the vast majority won by convincing people that they were the star of the show. One cannot win by sitting back and being boring.

They have to be funny

This is a personality trait I’ve come to notice that is an essential characteristic for someone to win CBB. On the face of it, some of the winners aren’t obvious comedians, like Ulrika Jonnsson. But as long as they do things to make the viewers laugh, they’re in with a chance. In her series, Ulrika sang a hilarious duet of “Endless Love” with Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). Her singing voice was pretty atrocious, but it turned out to be one of the funniest and most memorable moments of the series.

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Denise Welch famously shocked viewers by getting her tits out “For the lads” in the hot tub, but it was one of the funniest moments of the show. This was copied by the next female to win, Charlotte Crosby, in September 2013.

Of course, actual comedians like Jack Dee and Jim Davidson won both of their series pretty comfortably, and so naturally funny people can be at an advantage.

Follow the online momentum

Watch the show and keep a close eye on key online metrics, which in my opinion are facebook comments and Telly Mix polls. Most people have facebook these days, and fans of the show are always keen to share their views on the Official Big Brother page. This has become an absolutely crucial way for me to guage public opinion and monitor momentum, be it for particular evictions or for the outright winner. People post their comments and one can helpfully see how many people agree by checking out the number of likes.

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Similarly, the polls on Telly Mix for some reason are far more accurate than others, such as on bbspy and Digital Spy forums. Looking out for who is gaining or losing momentum in this poll can be very telling and it is always influencing the markets.

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Multifaceted

The public like to see someone who shows different sides of their personality when picking their winner. This can be in the form of arguments, laughter, showing emotion and generally being vulnerable. One of the reasons I knew George from Gogglebox was never likely to win the September 2014 series was because he was always upbeat, and that’s the only side of him that we were ever going to see. As viewers, we prefer to see people who are multifaceted and are keen to show all sides of their ‘true’ selves.

Edit on final night

It is estimated that more than 80% of public votes are cast on the final night (or any eviction night). Therefore the last segment of highlights, usually the Last Supper speeches from the night before, can be carefully edited in a way for the producers to favour their desired winner. Running order can come into play here: in September 2014, Gary Busey was the last to be shown delivering his speech and had more airtime for this than some of his competitors. Similarly, Charlotte Crosby was shown as being very emotional during her speech. Channel 5 had probably decided they didn’t want boring Abz to win and so edited it as such to successfully persuade people to vote for Charlotte instead.

There are a couple more minor factors that can influence the public into voting for their winner. There’s much debate online as to whether or not the show is won “inside or outside of the house”. What happens in the house is undoubtedly important, but external factors can play their part as well. For example, Jim Davidson won his series after being wrongly arrested as part of Operation Yewtree. In order to help right this wrong, the public quickly got behind Jim and made sure that he coasted to victory. Ulrika Jonnson had been famously beaten up and kicked in the head by a football player. Charlotte Crosby being consistently treated like shit on Geordie Shore by Gaz was the most prominent storyline on that show.

In some series, you get a game-changing moment in the house after which the winner becomes obvious. Shilpa Shetty being bullied by Jade Goody is an obvious example, as is Chantelle being the “non-celebrity” in her series. Alex Reid caking himself in fake tan is the other example that springs to mind.

Hopefully you have enjoyed reading this post. Do join me for further blog posts throughout the series. I intend to offer analysis of each eviction (I correctly predicted that Chloe would be evicted, but other commitments meant I didn’t have time to write a post). I might also write a post on who I think is going to win.

Celebrity Big Brother 2014 – Operation Jim D

Jim D

Another new year, and another new series of Celebrity Big Brother, and the first ten days haven’t disappointed. It’s been fabulously entertaining for viewers, with all sorts of arguments and seedy activities occurring on the show already. Eviction punters haven’t been so fortunate just yet, as yet more stupid eviction twists have meant that nobody has been able to put on more than a few pennies. Lee and Casey being fake-evicted into the Bolt Hole was a certainty, but many were surprised when non-entity Liz Jones managed to escape the bottom 2, securing more votes than the former Heavyweight Champion of the World, Boxing Legend Evander Holyfield.

This post will be focusing on Jim Davidson and what I think his chances are of winning the show. He currently has serious momentum in the markets, having been backed into second favourite over the last few days. Jim is currently available to back at 5/1 (oops, now down to 4/1) on the high street and 5.3 on Betfair. His arrival to the show was exactly a year late, as he was originally supposed to be in the series this time last year with Rylan Clark and Speidi. Of course, he was famously arrested as part of Operation Yewtree, of which I won’t go into any details. The producers have probably waited longer to secure him than all other housemates, and he may have demanded a higher fee due to the increased press coverage over the last twelve months. It was therefore no surprise that Jim received plenty of producer favour right at the start of the series.

It can be argued that the first celebrity to enter the house is one of the most favoured in the line up, and Jim had that honour in this series. I was surprised to hear the crowd cheer him on his way in, as he controversially rubbed people up the wrong way with his views on cookery show Hell’s Kitchen, where he was famously booted off the show for making homophobic comments towards BB alumnus Brian Dowling. Jim is no stranger to controversy, and prior to the show he had a reputation for being sexist, racist, homophobic, disablist, you name it…This will be part of the reason why Jim is doing CBB. Like many before him on this show, he wants to redeem himself and improve his reputation.

Similarly, I also believe that being part of the launch night twist is also very favourable. This is because ratings are at their highest for the whole series on launch and final nights. Jim was handcuffed to Linda Nolan and together they had to choose one pair of housemates to be freed. Wisely, they didn’t choose themselves, so they both got off to a good start in the eyes of the viewers.

Much has happened in the ten days since launch, but Jim has remained prominent in the edit. This is pretty crucial for a housemate’s win chances, as it shows them getting involved and allows them to steadily build support. He has been shown providing many witty comments, including the brilliant “Roll on death” and “It’s like living in hell!” from last night’s episode. Linda seems to have had a vendetta towards Jim from the word go, and I’m sure this was encouraged by producers as she ‘somehow’ found it necessary to talk about him in her VT. It’s a narrative that has continued to play out, with Jim being portrayed as the victim and Linda coming across as an unlikeable, moody old cow. It would take nothing short of a miracle for Linda to win this series. Sympathy from the public is on the side of Jim in this storyline and I imagine this will continue as long as Linda remains in the house.

More recently, Jim has been the victim of teasing and bullying for his grumpiness from Luisa and especially Jasmine. This was out of order from the two girls, and Luisa’s intelligence level probably isn’t as high as she thinks it is, as Emma Willis clearly revealed that Jim topped the vote-to-save on Friday night, and therefore has proven to be popular enough with the public. What are they playing at? Anyway, they’re both coming across very badly and one of them could be gone in the eviction on Wednesday night. Jim is playing a brilliant game by walking away, keeping calm and refusing to blow his top. This has impressed many viewers, including myself. So this is another source of sympathy for Jim, which is partly responsible for his current momentum in the markets.

I believe that Jim is still one of the most favoured housemates in the eyes of the producers. He has been given another secret mission for this week’s shopping task, which will obviously result in more airtime for him. This time last year, the producer bias towards Rylan Clark was absolutely blatant, with him being given what seemed like all the secret tasks. I expect producers to find ways of keeping Jim in the edit by making him the focus of particular house events and activities. Luckily for Jim, he also found himself in the inoffensive ‘U-Rated’ room rather than the outrageously exploitative and sexually gratuitous ‘18-Rated’ room, which saw 82 year old national treasure, Lionel Blair, exclaiming “Suck my d**k” and thrusting his crotch whilst wearing a kinky PVC bondage outfit. This episode was the Daily Star’s wet dream, and it really has to be seen to be believed. The Betfair market has written him off, and in terms of winning, Lionel has now blown it – if you pardon the pun. It’s a shame because I previously saw him as stiff competition.

I haven’t watched the face-to-face nominations yet, but Jim has found himself up for eviction for the second time. It’s not particularly surprising, but he topped the vote-to-save and will do so again this Wednesday, without a doubt, given who he is up against. However, we’ll have to wait and see if producers choose to reveal this information for a second time. If they did, I would expect his price to shorten further.

Saturday’s Bit On The Psych programme had some discussion centred around Jim, and he received overwhelming cheers and a huge round of applause from the audience. This was a trigger for me, having built up a case for him in my head over the course of a few days, I decided to back him heavily to win the show. I was also lucky enough to get an enormous price for him on launch night, which seemed almost fair at the time…

The market doesn’t think there is much competition for Jim at the moment, and I agree. Ollie Locke and Sam Faiers justify having single-figure prices due to the fan bases of Made In Chelsea and TOWIE respectively. However, they haven’t been shown in the edit very much, with Sam in particular being mostly invisible. They have been criticised for being too politically correct and sitting on the fence, which is fair enough to say at this moment in time. I have no doubt they’ll be there on the final night, but will they have done enough by then for one of them to win it? Time will tell. I would argue that they are also likely to split the vote-to-win somewhat. People who watch constructed reality shows tend to be fans of both TOWIE and Chelsea, so I’m not sure if one of them will gain enough support win, but I would fancy Ollie’s chances at this stage rather than Sam’s – both because he has a penis and coz he’s well fit innit? Bizarrely, I didn’t realise until last night (Thanks Jessica on sofabet comments!) but no one from TOWIE or Chelsea has actually won a reality show before, despite many trying. Ollie and Sam are likeable enough, though, and I’ll be keeping them both as greens for the time being. I was surprised to learn that all phone votes have increased in price to 50p (with no donation to charity), which is a little on the pricey side. Those in their late teens, students and 20s who may well be fans of Ollie and Sam, can they afford it, afford it, afford it? Can you afford it?

Jim has the right sort of profile to do well on CBB, being male and of a certain age. I also believe he’ll potentially receive support from several different sections of society. Jim is a champion for the ‘Anti-PC brigade’, the type of people who read the Daily Mail and say things like “It’s political correctness gone mad!” and “You can’t say what you want anymore” – like Luisa Zissman. He’s apparently done a lot for ‘Our Troops’ over the years, and I can see him receiving plenty of support from Middle England. Big Break was a popular Saturday night show in the 90s, so could he pull in some votes from the snooker ‘community’? An Essex regional vote perhaps? Ok, that may be pushing it! He’s certainly one of the most famous housemates left on the show, no matter which way you look at him.

Furthermore, male comedians have a strong record on the show. He reminds me more than a little of Jack Dee, winner of series 1, and Michael Barrymore, runner up in series 4. Jack’s grumpiness and dry wit enamoured him to the viewers, sort of in a similar way to what Jim is doing. Michael was in a very similar situation to Jim, needing to overcome negative press and a tarnished reputation. The public can enjoy a comeback in the same kind of way as they like rooting for an underdog, which could work in Jim’s favour. The fact that he was wrongly arrested and accused for much of last year will mean that he will receive a great deal of goodwill. A large part of why Ulrika Jonsson and Charlotte-Leiticia Crosby won their respective series is because of things which had happened to them outside of the house – Ulrika famously being a victim of an extremely high-profile domestic abuse case and Charlotte continually being treated like crap on Geordie Shore by serial womaniser, Gaz.

I’ve presented a strong case for Jim, but what about the negatives? Like all housemates, he isn’t without them. My first concern is, are the days of older contestants winning the show now over? The last two series saw popular celebrities du jour, Charlotte-Leiticia Crosby and Rylan Clark, both in their twenties, emerge victorious. The flipside to this is that the winners of the first two series on Channel 5 were Paddy Doherty and Denise Welch, both of whom were very much typical winners in terms of their profiles. Will there be enough older viewers and voters left to carry someone like Jim to victory? The next worry has to be whether or not Jim can keep his cool over the next 11 days or so. I would hope so, as this Wednesday and Friday will probably see people like Luisa and Jasmine get evicted, so there will be fewer people to rattle Jim’s cage as the show goes on. Still, it is a worry. A ringing endorsement from Katie Hopkins (aka Big Brother’s Bitch On The Side) at the start of the series didn’t give me much hope for his chances either, but things have changed since then. The only other negative that springs to mind is that there is still plenty of time to go, which is plenty of time for something unpredictable to happen or for someone else to have a game-changing, winning moment.

Traditionally, the winner of Celebrity Big Brother has been someone who has changed people’s perceptions since entering the house – Alex Reid being the classic example. This is certainly happening with Jim at the moment and I am reading comments on the official facebook page and Digital Spy, which read like; “I never thought I’d say this, but I’m really liking Jim and I’ve been really impressed with the way he has handled himself. Jim to win!” These aren’t isolated comments, either, but the majority of posters’ opinions. He’s also gaining some momentum in polls such as the one on Telly Mix. When push comes to shove, I think viewers will make their final voting decisions based on who has had the best narrative and given the most to the show throughout the series, whilst proving to be a decent and likeable person. Producers seem to be on his side and I’m sure he is one of their preferred winners, if not The Chosen One. For that reason I have to recommend a back of Jim Davidson to win Celebrity Big Brother at 4/1 with Ladbrokes etc. I also wouldn’t put you off a back of Jim to be Top Man at 3/1 with Ladbrokes.

Best of luck if you are taking my advice, and feel free to tell me I’m wrong on twitter @Reality_Tim

Celebrity Big Brother Second Eviction: Everybody Loves Courtney

The first eviction on Wednesday night saw Danielle Marr evicted. Less than two days later, we’re almost at the next eviction already.

This time we have Charlotte, Courtney, Lauren, Louie and Ron up for eviction. What looks like a potentially tricky eviction can be deciphered with some detailed and careful analysis.

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Charlotte-Leticia Crosby is trading at 32.0 to go on Betfair. Her price accurately reflects how safe she is, with her Geordie Shore fan base sure to keep their “finest” safe in this instance. This is despite her getting blind drunk and pissing the bed! But punters need to remember that, in acting like this, she’s delighting her demographic, whom are used to seeing her like this…and worse, in the Geordie Shore house. She’s hot favourite to win the outright, and is certainly in with a chance of doing so.

Courtney Stodden was relatively unknown before appearing on CBB, and entered the house to a plethora of boos. She had a shaky couple of days at first, when viewers were concerned with her backstory and slightly annoying high-pitched voice. However, Courtney has really come into her own since then. She’s an extremely intriguing character, with a very sweet and caring personality. Viewers have warmed to her, and rightly so as she seems like a decent and likeable young girl. The way she has buddied up with and warmed to Lauren has also been endearing. Quantitative evidence of Courtney’s growing popularity can be found in ALL of the polls – from the trustworthy ones at Telly Mix and TV polls, to the more ‘mental’ fan polls like bbspy and the Digital Spy forum. Courtney is actually second favourite to be evicted right now, at 4.2 on Betfair, but I believe she’s relatively safe. It was Courtney’s birthday yesterday and so she should receive plenty of positive coverage in tonight’s highlights show. Also, being American, Channel 5 will have paid handsomely for her, and won’t want to be losing her after just one week.

Courtney’s best pal in the house, Lauren Harries, has been dying to get into the Big Brother house for years. Long-time Big Brother fans will remember her from many spin-off appearances on the likes of Big Mouth and Bit On The Side. Having undergone a sex change, Lauren is a fascinating character both for viewers and housemates. It’s clear, though, that she’s also extremely fragile and emotionally unstable, and many people are questioning the decision to put her in the house. Lauren is one of the more divisive housemates, with polls suggesting she is just as liked as she is disliked. She’s going for the sympathy vote big time, claiming that she’s never had a friend. Will the viewers go for it? I think quite a few will, and Lauren seems the classic ‘journey’ contestant who could potentially win the show after altering the public’s perception of her. People will feel sorry for her, and it will probably keep her safe this time around, in my opinion.

Oh god, where do I start with Louie? My opinion of him before he entered the house was pretty negative, and now I honestly can’t stand to watch the guy. He’s probably the bitchiest housemate there has been in a long time. I also find him highly unpleasant, and viewers seem to agree, as he is by far the most disliked in the polls. But Louie remains the third favourite to win the show outright. As well as becoming more disliked, he is also becoming less popular. For some reason, he seems to be digging a hole for himself. Perhaps he wants to go, as he says, or perhaps he just wants the attention and the airtime. I’m not convinced that “But it’s Louie Spence!” is enough to keep him safe from this eviction. He polls very badly, and unless there is a huge casual vote for him not represented in the polls, I believe he’s in danger. Louie is currently the 3rd favourite to be evicted at around 5.1 on Betfair, but he has shortened, having been available as high as 11.0 yesterday.

Big Ron survived Wednesday’s eviction, probably topping the vote. So why is he now the favourite to be evicted, just two days later? He is facing some serious opposition this time around. Ron is perceived as being a little boring and not doing very much in the house. He somewhat controversially almost put up Lauren for eviction in the twist, but I don’t think it was for any nasty reason. He has since made up with Lauren but that’s about all the airtime he has had. Ron received the fewest number of nominations out of those who are up, and so it’s clear that producers wouldn’t mind him to go. But he polls better than Louie does (but not better than anyone else), and it’s possible that Big Ron’s legendary football reputation and Midlands regional vote could see him pick up some support. Although I do think he is deserving favourite to go, I believe it’s by no means a given.

I do have a line of thinking that I don’t believe many punters have yet considered. There is highly likely to be some sort of head-to-head tonight, with Ron and/or Louie most likely to still remain in the vote. It’s a longer show than Wednesday’s, at 90 minutes, and so there is plenty of time for a vote freeze or two. Producers also don’t tend to leave five housemates in the final vote these days. IF this happens then I think Louie would be in more danger than he is perceived to be in at the moment. This is because people will anti-vote him, especially if it’s him vs one other person. A short voting window, and multiple housemates up in a Vote-To-Save, are reasons why a ‘shock’ eviction could well take place. Because of this, I think there is a shade of value in Louie to be evicted at between 5.1 and 5.4 on Betfair. I believe his price will shorten during the show if he gets heavily booed by the crowd. However, this doesn’t form my main strategy for this eviction. Instead I am mostly laying Courtney for eviction at 4.6ish because I think she is the only housemate up who is not particularly disliked. I believe we’ll be seeing either Ron or Louie departing tonight.

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One should tread carefully here, as anyone apart from Charlotte could feasibly be evicted. There are plenty of ways to proceed, and potentially some good value in backing tonight’s evictee. Good luck!

To save Courtney you can call 6 50 58 05 from a mobile or 090 20 50 58 05 from a landline.

Celebrity Big Brother First Eviction – Danielle Who?

The 13th series of Celebrity Big Brother began last week, and as it’s only three weeks long, we’re already approaching the first eviction. Danielle Marr (who?), Ron Atkinson and Janice Battersby (it’s my blog, so I’m going to call her “Janice”!) were nominated by ‘The Cult of Celebrity’, and one of them will depart this Wednesday.

One big advantage of the Celebrity version is that one often has a good perception of the housemates’ potential fan bases (or at least their level of fame). This can make the evictions relatively easy to predict. The producers have also switched back to VOTE-TO-SAVE which, after getting over the initial shock, I’m now okay with as I remembered it works well with celebrities. However, the downside with CBB is that there can sometimes be less value when backing potential evictees. I won’t beat about the bush with a lengthy article here – this eviction is by all accounts an easy call.

Danielle Marr (your guess is as good as mine) is almost totally unknown in the UK, having more fame over in Ireland where she apparently appeared in reality show ‘Dublin Wives’. She hasn’t reacted well to being up for the first public vote, with a notable scathing attack on Sophie Anderton in the diary room and an argument with her in the garden. Danielle was an easy target for the first eviction, and it’s no surprise to see her as super hot favourite to go.

Apart from being paid handsomely, Ron Atkinson is in the CBB house to help rebuild his reputation after notoriously being sacked from ITV in 2004. In only the first few days, he’s already dropped a bit of a clanger, joking that Danielle was hiding a bomb under the towel on her head. However, in terms of offensiveness it wasn’t too bad. The warning which he received from Big Brother was probably a sufficient punishment. Despite having done wrong in the past, I don’t think the viewing public have it in at all for Big Ron. In fact, I think his status as a legendary football manager greatly outweighs a few slips of the tongue. His general on-screen persona is that of a sweet old grandfatherly figure, and he is highly likely to be safe tomorrow night. I also think he will top the vote-to-save.

Janice is very well known with the public from her time on Coronation Street. She hasn’t exactly gotten off to a great start in the house though, as she has been portrayed as bossy and has more recently been talking to herself in the garden – in a creepy, loopy way. However, she’s still a hell of a lot more famous and liked than Danielle Marr. She’ll be popular enough with the public this time around, but I think she’d be in danger of eviction if up against a different set of housemates. Janice may also benefit from a small North West regional vote, and so a price of 9.0 on Betfair doesn’t appeal.

Danielle is almost certain to be evicted on Wednesday night. There is not yet much liquidity, but if you fancy buying some free money, you should be able to do so between 1.2 and 1.3 on Betfair. Once this Z-lister is out of the way, there will hopefully be some better value in future evictions, the next of which being this Friday.

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Big Brother Week 9 – Sam To Be Evicted In Semi-Final Shocker

Hazel was evicted last week in what was third time unlucky for her, but third time lucky for the punters who backed her.

We’re into the final few days of the series now, and we have Charlie, Jack and Joe, Sam and now Sophie up for eviction, thanks to Secrets and Lies. One of them will fall at the final furlong, but who?

Jack and Joe have been up several times now, but have never made the head-to-head to make it close to being evicted. Often cheered by the crowd, they’ve been called safe each time and I’m happy to call them safe this week. The market agrees, and at a best price of 9.0 to be evicted, I think we’ll be seeing them in the final.

Charlie is a difficult one. Like Dexter, she’s quite a complex character, and there’s something quite watchable about her, but she’s annoying. She’s had a good edit this week, most notably when her and Dexter were shown cuddling up with an amusing ‘Dawson’s Creek’ theme song playing in the background. She’s also stood up to Dexter The Devious for his actions in The Big Payoff twist, but in a sensible and non-confrontational way. She certainly had a point questioning him. The danger with Charlie this week is that she made it into the head-to-head vs. Hazel last week, so will have polled a decent amount of votes. But this came after a week of bad editing: cucumber-gate plus her big argument with Hazel (who, as well as having her detractors, will have also had her fans). Her performance in the polls has been ok – either second or third highest, depending on which one you look at. I don’t think she’ll be returning home to mum Jackie Travers tonight, but it’s by no means impossible.

Sophie is only up for eviction because Dexter chose to replace himself with her, to snatch her place in the final. Had this have been Gina instead, many people would have been outraged, but it seems the majority are quite happy to see Sophie up for eviction. She polls extremely badly, pretty much the least popular housemate in terms of fans. Viewers are, on the whole, bored of her miserable and bitchy personality, Canning Taaaan accent and pretending(?) to be thick schtick. In the trustworthy eviction polls, she has been leading them all. Many people believe she is boring and undeserving of a place in the final, and social media comments have been unkind. I would encourage a back of Sophie to be evicted at 3.25 with BetVictor. She could well be leaving the show tonight – that is, if she’s able to find the front door.

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Wow, where to start with Sam this week?! He’s been deserving favourite to win the show for about three weeks now, but this was well and truly flipped on its head after the edit in Thursday night’s show. As punters will know, it’s those who cause the conflict on this show who are often the prime candidates for eviction in that particular week. And I am afraid to say that this week it is Sam who fits this description. The edit for him last night was SO terrible. In quite rightly standing up to Dexter The Devious, producers somehow made SAM into the antagonist. Instead of the camera focusing on half-naked Sam, making his point, it was instead zoomed in on Dexter lying in bed, painting him as a victim. I completely believe that Sam was in the right. “100%”. But it’s the edit that counts, and social media was up in arms that Sam had pointed the finger at “Poor Dexter”. This week, the voting window is relatively short: only Thursday afternoon to Friday evening. The timing of this argument is unfortunate for Sam, as he now has the key eviction momentum going into tonight. Will it be enough? It was for his best mate, Callum, just two weeks ago. A short voting window lends itself particularly well to a “shock” eviction. The voting numbers for these evictions are likely to be pretty low anyway – Wolfy was only evicted by around 150 votes over Hazel, so those angered by angry Sam last night could well succeed in getting him out. These will be casual viewers as well as hardcore Dexter and Gina fans. They both have pretty massive fan bases (Gina in particular), so combined they could do enough damage to get him out, if effectively organised. And if all this wasn’t enough, he is now the clear producer target with THIS FRONT PAGE:

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Is it real? Probably not, but that’s irrelevant, as the paper is out there and plenty of people will believe it. This is full on hardcore Christopher Maloney-style nobbling tactics by the producers, but this isn’t really the place for them to be criticised.

Furthermore, I’d argue that all of his opponents have relatively little wrong, and therefore it’s difficult to envisage people voting for any of them en masse. The dislike for Sophie is extensive and real, but she has just been fairly disliked over the series rather than this week in particular. Therefore I think Sam is most likely to be evicted tonight. But will the former hot favourite really be evicted before the final? Having been matched as high as 200.0 on Betfair, Sam is now trading at 3.0 – the new favourite to be evicted and should be backed as soon as possible.The danger in backing Sam is the question of whether people will really pick up the phone to boot out a good looking deaf boy, but judging from the vitriolic comments on social media, it seems they are. What an exciting eviction night we’re in for! Hats off to producers, I suppose…

A quick message ahead of Monday’s final. I am as yet unsure whether I will do a post. I haven’t been playing the outright market, and probably wouldn’t be able to call the winner on Monday, regardless of who’s still in there. Instead, I may do a post for the 5th place market, which will be the next eviction after this one.